Public opinion poll - Anniversary of Israel’s War in Lebanon
The recent opinion poll conducted by the Survey Research Unit (SRU) at Mada al-Carmel, the Arab Center for Applied Social Research, shows that:
- 52.4% of the Arabs in Israel believe that the results of the war in Lebanon has reduced the strength of Israel’s deterrence
- 49.3% of the Arabs in Israel believe that, one year after the war in Lebanon, Hezbollah is more robust in the face of Israel
- 49.1% of the Arabs in Israel have become more convinced that Israel could be defeated militarily
The opinion poll conducted by the SRU looks at the views of the Arabs in Israel on the Israeli aggression against Lebanon on its one-year anniversary. A poll was conducted in the period between the 16th to the 19th of August, attended by 485 persons constituting a representative sample of the Arabs in Israel. The response rate was 58% and reached an error margin of 4.4% in both directions.
Results from the poll show that 52.4% of the Arabs in Israel believe that the effects of the war in Lebanon have reduced the strength of Israeli deterrence, while 22.6% assert that its strength remains unchanged, and 20% believe that the strength of Israeli deterrence increased after the results of the 2006 war in Lebanon.
Also, while 39.9% of the respondents believe that the outcome of the last war in Lebanon increased the possibility that Israel will begin a new war in the region, 21.9% believe it remains unchanged, and 16.4% believe that its effects have reduced the possibility of a new war in the region.
Over 35.9% of those surveyed assert that the results of the war in Lebanon increased the possibility of a future war against Israel by an Arab side, 25.9% of the participants believe that this possibility remains unchanged, and 14.3% think that the outcome of the war in Lebanon reduced the chances of an Arab war against Israel.
The poll shows that 49.3% of the respondents believe that, one year after the war in Lebanon, Hezbollah is more robust in the face of Israel, while 14.6% of the participants believe that Hezbollah’s behavior remains unchanged and 7.4% believe that it is less robust.
In viewing the effects of the war, over 49.1% of the participants were more convinced that Israel could be defeated militarily, while 28% of the respondents believe that its ability to defeat it militarily was not affected by the outcome of the war in Lebanon. A remaining 17.2% believe that it is not possible to defeat Israel militarily.
In retrospect, 51.5% of the participants believe that Hezbollah should have avoided war with Israel, while 43.6% believe that a military confrontation between the two could not be avoided.