Public opinion poll, in light of the Annapolis Conference

A new survey by the MADA Al-Carmel Center, in light of the Annapolis Conference, states:

• 73% of the Arabs in Israel believe that the Palestinian side in the negotiations has no right to agree to an exchange of territories.
• 65.6% of the Arabs in Israel believe that the Palestinian side in the negotiations has no right to recognize Israel as a Jewish state.
• 78.9% of the Arabs in Israel believe that the Palestinian side in the negotiations has no right to relinquish the Right of Return.
• 81% of the Arabs in Israel believe that the Palestinian side in the negotiations has no right to make concessions in the issue of Jerusalem.
• 60.8% believe that it is impossible to achieve equality for the Arab citizens of Israel while the State defines itself as Jewish.

With the convening of the Annapolis conference, alongside the Israeli conditions and expectations that preceded it, which took advantage of the internal disagreements among the Palestinians, Mada Al-Carmel - the Arab Center for Applied Social Research, has initiated a survey, to examine the opinions of Palestinians in Israel on the issues that occupy the media and public opinion, in relation to the political preparations prior to the convention of the Conference. Among these issues: the Right of Return for the Palestinian refugees, Palestinian recognition of Israel as a Jewish state, and the Israeli plans to transfer settlements in the “Triangle” to a Palestinian controlled territory in exchange for a number of Jewish settlement blocks.
The survey was conducted in the period between the 23rd and 26th November, with the participation of 500 interviewees, constituting a representative sample of Israeli Arabs, with a statistical error of 4.3% in both directions.

The results of the survey on the Annapolis Conference show that 65.6% of the Arabs in Israel believe that the Palestinian side in the negotiations has no right to recognize Israel as a Jewish state, compared with 25.5% who believe that it has such a right, and 8.9% who do not know; 78.9% of the participants believe that the Palestinian side in the negotiations has no right to relinquish the Right of Return, and 81% believe that the Palestinian side in the Annapolis conference has no right to make concessions in the issue of Jerusalem; in addition, 73% think that the Palestinian side in the negotiations has no right to agree to annex towns and villages in the Triangle to the Palestinian Authority in exchange of annexation of the settlements blocks to Israel. On the other hand, 12.2% believe that the Palestinian side in the negotiations has the right to relinquish the Right of Return, 10.6% that it has the right to make concessions concerning Jerusalem, and 17.5% replied that the Palestinian side in the negotiations has the right to agree to annex towns and villages in the Triangle to the Palestinian Authority in exchange of the annexation of the settlements blocks to Israel.

Concerning the question: “Does participation in the Conference without internal Palestinian consensus lower the level of demands and increase the possibility of concessions on the part of the Palestinians?”, 26.1% replied that going to the Conference without internal consensus lowers the level of demands and increases the possibility of concessions to a large extent, 22.5% - to a medium extent, 11.3% - to a small extent, 28.7% - it makes no difference, and 11.3% replied that they do not know.

When the participants were asked for their opinion about a letter to be sent by the Follow-up Committee for Arab Citizens of Israel to the Palestinian President Abu Mazen, demanding him not to recognize Israel as a Jewish state, 39.5% said that they support it, 30.6% opposed it, and 29.9% replied that they do not know.

Concerning the effect of such a letter on the status of the Follow-up Committee for Arab Citizens of Israel, 25.1% think that such a letter would reinforce the Follow-up Committee’s status for them, 10.4% replied that its status would be temporarily reinforced, and 41.3% that such a letter would have no effect on the Committee’s status for them. On the other hand, 13.4% considered that generally, the Committee’s status would be weakened following such a letter.

As for the State of Israel’s definition of itself as a Jewish state, and whether the Arabs in Israel should demand the change of this definition, 46.7% of the Palestinians in Israel think that they should demand of Israel to change its definition as a Jewish state, while 27.5% replied that this should not be demanded, and 26.3% do not know.

On the question of whether it is possible to obtain equality for the Palestinian citizens in Israel under its definition as a Jewish state, 60.8% replied that it is not possible to achieve equality, while 31.3% said that it would be possible to achieve equality and 8% said they do not know.

Regarding the proposal being made these days in political circles, which is to annex towns and villages in the Triangle to the Palestinian Authority in exchange of the annexation of the settlements to Israel, 45.1% replied that they had heard of such proposal, compared with 47.4% who said they had not. As for their agreement or disagreement with such a proposal, 72.1% replied that they definitely refuse it, compared with 8% who definitely agree with it, 10% who agree with it, and 10% who do not know.

Below are the reasons which led to the opposition to the above proposal ranked in order of importance:

1. 62.2% related to the “Triangle residents' loss of their rights as citizens of Israel” as an important reason, 14.3% thought of it as important to a certain extent, 13.7% considered it as an unimportant reason, and 9.8% replied that they do not know.
2. 55.7% related to the “difficult living conditions in the Palestinian territories compared with the conditions in Israel” as an important reason, 22.2% thought of it as important to a certain extent, 12.4% considered it as an unimportant reason, and 9.8% replied that they do not know.
3. 56% related to “the poor government and corruption in the Palestinian Authority” as an important reason, 20.9% thought of it as important to a certain extent, 12.9% considered it as an unimportant reason, and 10.2% replied that they do not know.
4. 54.3% related to “the possibility that the concept of the Jewishness of the state might succeed, and the Arabs’ strength in Israel might be weakened” as an important reason, 20% thought of it as important to a certain extent, 15.4% considered it as an unimportant reason, and 10.4% replied that they do not know.
5. 53.5% related to “the weakening of the Arabs’ strength in Israel” as an important reason, 19.4% thought of it as important to a certain extent, 16.4% considered it as an unimportant reason, and 10.8% replied that they do not know.
6. 50.6% related to the idea that “Israel and the Palestinian Authority have no right to make such a decision” as an important reason, 21.7% thought of it as important to a certain extent, 15.9% considered it as an unimportant reason, and 11.8% replied that they do not know.
7. 56.9% related to the concept that “it is humiliating to the Palestinians in Israel to be used as pawns in a game of chess” as an important reason, 16.1% thought of it as important to a certain extent, 12.5% considered it as an unimportant reason, and 14.5% replied that they do not know.

About the possibility of actual execution of such exchanges, 13.1% of the interviewees replied that such a possibility is high, 16.1% thought that it is high, 21.9% believed it is average, 12% that it is low, 22.1% that it is very low and 14.7% replied that they do not know.

As for the position regarding the Right of Return for the Palestinian refugees and the achievement of such right, it emerged from the survey that 42.8% of the Arab citizens in Israel consider that the most appropriate solution for them is to give the refugees the right to return to their land in Israel, while 18.5% think that they should be allowed to choose between return and compensation, 8% think that the most appropriate solution is for some of the refugees to return (especially those living in severe conditions) and grant them compensations based on terms to be dealt in the negotiations, 6% replied that the most appropriate solution would be to settle the refugees in the Arab countries where they are living and to compensate them, while 5.8% think that the most appropriate solution is to give financial compensation only. 6.6% of the participants in the survey replied that they do not know what the most appropriate solution is.

Regarding the question about the role of the Arabs in Israel concerning the active demand to achieve the Right of Return, 66.9% replied that Israeli Arabs should actively demand the achieve of the right of return, while 26.7% replied that they should not do so.

As for the reasons behind the refusal of the Israeli society and institutions to allow the return of the Palestinian refugees, the interviewees replied as follows:

• The return of the refugees constitutes a security threat in the sense of physical threat to the lives of the Jews and the state (32.9%);
• The return of the refugees constitutes a demographic threat, i.e. a rise in the number of Arabs (30.9%);
• The return of the refugees requires the return of lands and houses and to share economic resources with them (24.7%);
• The return of the refugees requires recognition of the direct responsibility for their expulsion (6.8%);

4.8% said they do not know the answer